Rise of the First Californian Empire

Lately I've begun a project of developing a realistic Divided States trajectory, mainly because the dystopias of Hunger Games and Revolution feel a little...off to me.

Doing this is ruthlessly complicated: the main reason none of the popular dystopias feel like they work is because none of them really properly analyze the way the anthropological cookie crumbles--a first key realization is that there are just over a dozen major North American "nations" (let us be clear we're not including Mexico here, although it will obviously be an influence): New England/Canadian Maritimes, Québec, Yankeedom, Mid-Atlantic, Tidewater, Deep South, Cajun, Texas, Appalachia, the Rust Belt, the Empty Quarter, Deseret, Southern California, Northern California, and Cascadia. Each of these will tend to stick "with their own", leading to natural confederations and empire-building.

The second major role is played by resources, by supply and economic advancement. In three parts of the country--the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and Deep South--access to water will become the key influence, driving the rise and fall of nations (this is already seen in the Colorado water rights issues and Atlanta water wars). Geography plays a third major role, particularly as the extremely arbitrary modern states' boundaries settle into more natural geographical boundaries, ones redrawn primarily at the county level.

In the Divided States scenario, we will start by assuming the Federal government of the United States (and Canada) has ceased to be, leaving each state, province, and territory independent. We will assign actions in the timeline P.D. (post divisionem, or "after the division").

Let us, then, start with the Desert Southwest. Broadly speaking, this is the region watered by the Colorado, and includes California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and parts of Colorado and Wyoming.

1 P.D. Los Angeles moves to secure its share of Colorado River water supply. California invades and conquers Nevada to access the Hoover Dam. "Greater California" or the "First Californian Empire" is born.

Utah changes its name to Deseret.

5 P.D. California and Arizona go to war over control of the Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams, the largest sequestration basins of Colorado River water (Lake Mead and Lake Powell, respectively). Deseret begins to build its own pumping stations on Lake Powell.

7 P.D. The Battle of Lake Havasu results in a decisive Californian victory.

Deseret annexes Colorado and Wyoming west of the Great Divide.

8 P.D. California takes Phoenix; Arizona falls. With control over the lower Colorado, California seeks to take control of the upper Colorado.

10 P.D. War breaks out between California and Deseret.

12 P.D. California gains control of the upper Colorado; in the Treaty of Portland, California strips Deseret of all territory within the Colorado watershed.

15 P.D. With the San Diego Purchase, buying the Tijuana and Mexicali metropolitan areas from Mexico, the First California Empire reaches its maximum extent; the official capital remains Sacramento, but the true center of power lies in Los Angeles, which spares no expense in making sure the water keeps running.

17 P.D. Still licking their wounds from the Treaty of Portland, Deseret sets its sights on controlling the Snake River basin, invading, and conquering, Idaho.

At 20 P.D. the First Californian Empire controls the states of California, Nevada, Arizona, and the majority of Utah; Deseret controls the remainder of Utah as well as Idaho and half of Wyoming.